The Philadelphia Phillies aim to complete a three-game sweep against the Houston Astros at Citizens Bank Park this Wednesday afternoon.
The game is currently considered a pick’em on the odds board, with Spencer Arrighetti facing off against a struggling Taijuan Walker.
Let's dive into the analysis for this matchup:
Game Analysis
Houston Astros starting pitcher Spencer Arrighetti may not have the most impressive season stats (6-11, 4.94 ERA), but those numbers don’t tell the whole story.
The rookie right-hander struggled in the first half of the season, posting a 4-7 record with a 5.63 ERA. However, he has shown considerable improvement since then, going 2-4 with a 3.44 ERA in his six starts in the second half.
A key factor for this game is that Arrighetti has been pitching deeper into games recently. He has gone over 15.5 outs in all six of his second-half starts and in seven consecutive games overall, dating back to the first half of the season. Initially, the Astros seemed cautious with him, but they now appear more comfortable letting the rookie pitcher go deeper into games.
It's also noteworthy that Arrighetti's recent strong performances have come against some of the toughest teams in the league, including the Rangers, Athletics, Dodgers, Rays, Red Sox, White Sox, and Orioles. He managed to pitch at least six innings in all but one of these starts, demonstrating his ability to handle high-pressure situations.
Furthermore, the Astros’ bullpen has been used quite a bit in the last few games.
Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu both threw a significant number of pitches on Sunday and Monday, which may impact their availability today. The bullpen usage suggests that Houston might need Arrighetti to pitch deep into the game again.
On the Phillies' side, Bryce Harper is heating up, currently riding a six-game hitting streak, which includes a double in four of his last five games.
Harper is slugging .570 at home compared to .475 on the road and .518 against right-handed pitchers. Brandon Marsh is also on a five-game hitting streak, including a home run in Monday's win, showing that the Phillies' offense is starting to click.
Astros vs Phillies Opening Odds
- Moneyline: Houston -110 | Philadelphia -110
- Run line: Houston -1.5 (+145) | Philadelphia +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-105) | Under 9.5 (-115)
Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
The odds for the Phillies haven't moved significantly since opening at -108, staying in the range of -105 to -110. The Astros are slight favorites, with their odds moving slightly to as short as -115 after initially opening at -108.
The total is set higher at either 9.5 or 10 runs, despite the first two games of the series being low-scoring affairs.
Trends / Insights
The Phillies have been strong at home, cashing in on the moneyline in 40 of their last 57 home games. This trend suggests a favorable outcome for Philadelphia in this matchup.
Game Information
- Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Date: Wednesday, August 28, 2024
- First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV: Space City Network, NBCS-Philadelphia
- Starting Pitchers:
- Astros: Spencer Arrighetti (6-11, 4.94 ERA)
- Phillies: Taijuan Walker (3-5, 6.26 ERA)
Latest Injuries
Philadelphia Phillies:
- Jose Alvarado (RP): Out indefinitely - Personal (Reported: Tue, August 27)
- Weston Wilson (3B): Probable for Wednesday - Personal (Reported: Wed, August 28)
- Spencer Turnbull (SP): Out indefinitely - Shoulder (Reported: Sat, August 17)
Houston Astros:
- J.P. France (SP): Out indefinitely - Shoulder (Reported: Tue, August 20)
- Ryan Pressly (RP): Out indefinitely - Back (Reported: Sat, August 17)
- Kyle Tucker (RF): Out indefinitely - Shin (Reported: Tue, July 30)
With the Phillies' offense showing signs of life and Spencer Arrighetti finding his form late in the season, this game could go either way. However, with the Astros' reliance on their rookie pitcher and the Phillies' strong home record,
Philadelphia seems well-positioned to potentially complete a sweep, especially given Taijuan Walker's inconsistencies on the mound.