Week 1 of the 2024 college football season officially begins on Thursday night in Piscataway, NJ, with Howard facing off against Rutgers.
Analysis
Rutgers concluded the previous season with a 7-6 record, including a victory in the Pinstripe Bowl against the Miami Hurricanes.
Despite a strong start at 6-2, they faltered in their last four regular-season games, averaging just 11.5 points per game during that stretch. This offensive struggle highlights the uncertainty surrounding Rutgers' ability to dominate in their opening game.
To address their quarterback issues, Rutgers turned to the transfer portal, acquiring Athan Kaliakmanis from Minnesota. However, his inconsistent performance with the Golden Gophers suggests that he may not immediately solve the Scarlet Knights' offensive woes. Rutgers did manage to secure FCS All-American Dymere Miller from Monmouth, a move that could add much-needed spark to their receiving corps.
Defensively, Rutgers' strength lies in the experience of returning players and the addition of defensive tackle Malcolm Ray from Florida State. However, the absence of their top two tacklers from last season, including pass rusher Mohamed Toure, due to injury, leaves a gap that Howard could exploit.
Howard finished the previous season with a 6-6 record and showed resilience in their two games against FBS teams, losing to Eastern Michigan by just 10 points and to Northwestern by three. In both contests, Howard comfortably covered the spread despite being significant underdogs. The Bison will be without their quarterback from last season but will still have a strong running game led by Jarett Hunter, who was ranked higher than current Chicago Bears "Hard Knocks" star Ian Wheeler last season.
This game’s spread of 36.5 points is a large margin, especially considering that Rutgers only surpassed that total once last season.
Given that it took time for Rutgers' offense to find its rhythm even in favorable matchups, and with a new quarterback leading the charge, Howard's chances of covering the spread look promising. The Bison should manage to control possession enough to keep the game within the number.
Game Strategy: Parlay Options
With an FCS team in the mix, there aren’t many options for a same-game parlay. A straightforward approach is to parlay the spread with the total. If Howard covers the spread, the Under seems more likely. However, betting on the Over might offer better odds, and there’s a plausible scenario for it hitting.
Howard allowed 33 points to Eastern Michigan and 23 to Northwestern last year. Although Rutgers may not exceed 37 points, Howard could potentially score 20 or more, as they did in both their FBS games last season, pushing the total into the 50s while still covering.
Howard vs. Rutgers Opening Odds
- Spread: Howard +36.5 | Rutgers -36.5
- Moneyline: Howard OTB | Rutgers OTB
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Rutgers opened as 34.5-point favorites, with the line moving up to 36.5 as of Wednesday morning, even reaching as high as 37.5 at one point. Historically, Howard has covered the spread in all four matchups with Rutgers since 2009, losing by an average margin of 28.8 points.
The total has also shifted significantly towards the Over, moving from an opening of 47.5 to 49.5. Three of the last four games between these teams have gone over 49.5 points.
Key Betting Trend to Consider
Rutgers has hit the Over in each of their last five home games. This trend could suggest another high-scoring affair, making the Over an intriguing option for bettors.
Game Information
- Location: SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ
- Date: Thursday, August 29, 2024
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
- TV: BIG10
In summary, while Rutgers is the favorite, Howard’s ability to keep games close against FBS opponents and the uncertainty around Rutgers' offensive capabilities make taking the points with the Bison a compelling option.