Former President Donald Trump's election odds have surged following an assassination attempt at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Here's an analysis of how the event has impacted the betting odds and where the major candidates currently stand.
Pre-Attempt vs. Post-Attempt Odds
Before the shooting, Trump had a 58.2% chance of winning back the White House, according to electionbettingodds.com. By Monday, his chances had jumped to 67.9%, making him the -211 favorite. These odds are aggregated from several betting sites, including FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com, and Polymarket.com.
Current Odds Breakdown
- Donald Trump: 67.9% chance (-211)
- Joe Biden: 17.7% chance (+465)
- Kamala Harris: 6.7% chance (14-1)
Trump's improved odds reflect a significant increase in his perceived likelihood of winning the 2024 election.
BetOnline Odds
At BetOnline, Trump's odds are even more favorable. He's listed at -300 to win back the White House, which translates to a 75% implied probability.
Political oddsmaker Paul Krishnamurty from BetOnline.ag noted that the odds were suspended immediately after the assassination attempt and adjusted from -200 to -250. Since then, the influx of bets on Trump has only increased his odds.
Understanding the Odds
- Negative Numbers: Represent how much a bettor must wager to win $100. For instance, a -300 odds means a bettor must wager $300 to win $100 on Trump.
- Positive Numbers: Indicate how much a bettor would win on a $100 wager. For example, a +375 odds means a $100 bet on Biden would earn a profit of $375.
Odds to Win the 2024 US Presidential Election
| Candidate | Odds |
| Donald Trump Sr. | -300 |
| Joe Biden | +350 |
| Kamala Harris | +1000 |
| Michelle Obama | +4000 |
| Gavin Newsom | +4500 |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +5500 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +6600 |
| Hillary Clinton | +10000 |
| Nikki Haley | +15000 |
Trump's odds reflect his strong position following the assassination attempt, making him the clear favorite among the current field of candidates.