In a dramatic week marked by an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, President Joe Biden has announced on social media platform X that he will not seek re-election after his current term.
This announcement has significantly altered the 2024 presidential election odds, with Trump now the favorite over Kamala Harris.
Major Shifts in Election Odds
Trump's Assassination Attempt and Biden's Announcement
A failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump on July 13 at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania has made him an even stronger favorite to win the 2024 US election. Concurrently, Joe Biden ended weeks of speculation by announcing his decision not to seek re-election, further shaking up the odds landscape.
| Candidate | Odds |
| Donald Trump | -200 |
| Kamala Harris | +200 |
The Current Favorites
Donald Trump: The Leading Contender
Despite many predicting his political decline after the 2020 loss, Trump has solidified his position as a significant favorite for a second non-consecutive term.
His odds surged after the first debate, the assassination attempt, and his impactful speech at the Republican National Convention. Trump's odds have fluctuated over the years due to legal issues and internal GOP challenges, but his strong base and resilient brand have kept him in the lead.
Kamala Harris: The Presumptive Democratic Nominee
Following Biden's withdrawal, Kamala Harris has become the Democratic candidate, with her odds improving to +200.
Her tenure as Vice President has been marred by challenges, particularly in border migration and national voting reform.
Despite her political credentials, Harris' approval ratings remain low, and she underperforms Biden in national polls against Trump.
Other Potential Contenders
Gavin Newsom: The Democratic Dark Horse
Gavin Newsom, currently the Governor of California, is seen as a viable alternative to Harris. His odds have fluctuated, reaching +550 before settling at +5,000 as of July 22. Newsom's national profile and fundraising capabilities make him a strong candidate, but his public declarations support Biden, complicating his potential candidacy.
Michelle Obama: Persistent Rumors
Former First Lady Michelle Obama remains in the discussion with odds at +1,400, despite showing no public interest in running. Speculations about her candidacy persist, fueled by rumors of a possible party takeover at the Democratic convention.
Robert Kennedy Jr.: An Independent Wildcard
Robert Kennedy Jr. has positioned himself as an independent candidate, with odds at +5,000. While third-party candidates historically struggle to be competitive,
Kennedy's campaign could influence the election by drawing votes away from the major parties.
Implied Probabilities and Election Dynamics
To provide context to the next election odds, here are the implied probabilities for each candidate:
| Candidate | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Donald Trump | -200 | 66.7% |
| Kamala Harris | +200 | 33.3% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5,000 | 2% |
| Michelle Obama | +1,400 | 6.7% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +5,000 | 2% |
With the US election still several months away, the political landscape remains highly volatile. Donald Trump's position as the favorite is bolstered by his strong support base, while Kamala Harris faces an uphill battle with low approval ratings and internal party dynamics..
Potential challengers like Gavin Newsom and persistent rumors about Michelle Obama add further uncertainty to an already unpredictable race.
As the election approaches, these dynamics will continue to evolve, making it one of the most intriguing political events in recent history.