Event Details
- What: UFC 306 Co-Main Event
- Who: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko 3
- Date: Saturday, September 14, 2024
- Location: Sphere in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Early Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
The highly anticipated UFC 306 event takes place on Saturday, September 14, at the Sphere in Las Vegas.
This event, which coincides with Mexican Independence Day, is headlined by a bantamweight title fight. However, the co-main event, a trilogy fight between UFC women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champ Valentina Shevchenko, has garnered significant attention. Here’s a closer look at this exciting matchup and a breakdown of the betting odds.
Fighter Background
Alexa Grasso (record: 16-3-1)
Alexa Grasso won the UFC women’s flyweight title in March 2023 with a submission victory over Shevchenko. In their rematch in September 2023, the two fought to a draw, allowing Grasso to retain her title. She is currently on a six-fight unbeaten streak and has shown significant improvement with each bout.
Valentina Shevchenko (record: 23-4-1)
Valentina Shevchenko held the UFC women’s flyweight title from December 2018 to March 2023, successfully defending her crown seven times—a record for UFC women’s divisions. She remained unbeaten in nine UFC flyweight contests until her defeat by Grasso.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko 3 Betting Breakdown
The fight trilogy between Grasso and Shevchenko is set to be a thrilling encounter, with both fighters having proven themselves capable of winning.
In their first meeting, Shevchenko was leading on all three judges’ scorecards before Grasso secured a submission victory late in the fourth round. The rematch saw much closer betting odds, with Shevchenko listed at -165 and Grasso at +140.
The fight ended in a split draw, with opinions divided among fans and media alike.
For the upcoming bout, the betting odds opened with Grasso at -117 and Shevchenko at -107, reflecting how evenly matched these fighters are.
Key Factors to Watch in the Trilogy
Adjustments and Strategies
The first two fights between Grasso and Shevchenko have provided valuable insights for both fighters. Shevchenko needs to focus on simplifying her approach—being more aggressive with basic kicks while avoiding risky techniques and less predictable with her takedown attempts. In contrast, Grasso must continue to close the distance effectively and increase her striking output to prevent Shevchenko from dictating the pace of the fight.
Performance in the Rematch
Grasso made significant improvements in the rematch, increasing her striking accuracy from 32% to 41% and adding a takedown to her repertoire. Shevchenko, on the other hand, saw a slight decline in her striking accuracy from 60% in the first fight to 44% in the rematch, although she did manage to increase her ground control time and maintain a high success rate in takedowns.
Age and Experience
Age could play a crucial role in this fight. At 36, Shevchenko is five years older than Grasso, and fighters often begin to experience a decline in performance around this age. Additionally, Shevchenko’s extensive kickboxing career prior to her full-time move to MMA could factor into her longevity in the sport.
Head To Head Fighter Statistics
| Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| 16-3-1 | Record | 23-4-1 |
| 5' 5" | Height | 5' 5" |
| 125 lbs | Weight | 125 lbs |
| 66" | Reach | 66.5" |
| Orthodox | Stance | Southpaw |
| 4.67 | Sig Strk LPM | 3.28 |
| 55.69 | Sig Strk Acc | 68.65 |
| 0.41 | Takedown Average | 2.56 |
| 45.45 | Takedown Accuracy | 63.64 |
| 0.58 | Submission Average | 0.37 |
Other fights on the UFC 306 card:
- Sean O'Malley Vs Merab Dvalishvili (Bantamweight - Main Event - Title Fight)
- Brian Ortega Vs Diego Lopes (Featherweight)
- Daniel Zellhuber Vs Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight)
- Ronaldo Rodriguez Vs Ode' Osbourne (Flyweight)
- Raul Rosas Jr. Vs Aoriqileng (Bantamweight)
- Irene Aldana Vs Norma Dumont (Women's Bantamweight)
- Manuel Torres Vs Ignacio Bahamondes (Lightweight)
- Édgar Cháirez Vs Kevin Borjas (Flyweight)
- Yazmin Jauregui Vs Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight)