UFC 303 Main Event Betting Preview: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2

June 17, 2024

UFC 303’s main event has been reshuffled. Conor McGregor’s injury knocked him out of his much-anticipated fight against Michael Chandler, leading to a thrilling rematch between UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira and former titleholder Jiri Prochazka.

Their first clash in November 2023 saw Pereira triumph with a second-round TKO to capture the vacant title. Here’s a deeper dive into the fighters and the betting landscape for UFC 303.

Event Details

  • Event: UFC 303 Main Event
  • Headline Fight: Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka 2
  • Date: Saturday, June 29, 2024
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Latest Odds: UFC 303 at BetOnline
  • Time:
  • Early Prelims: 6:00 p.m. ET
  • Prelims: 8:00 p.m. ET
  • Pay-Per-View Card: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch:
  • Early Prelims: ESPN+
  • Prelims: ESPN
  • Main Card: ESPN+ PPV

Pereira Vs Prochazka: Fighter Profiles

Alex Pereira

  • Record: 10-2
  • Background: Former UFC middleweight champion and current light heavyweight champion.
  • Recent Fights:
  • Defeated Jiri Prochazka for the vacant light heavyweight title.
  • Defended his title against Jamahal Hill with a first-round knockout.

Jiri Prochazka

  • Record: 29-4-1
  • Background: Former UFC light heavyweight champion.
  • Recent Fights:
  • Won the light heavyweight title against Glover Teixeira via submission.
  • Surrendered the title due to a severe shoulder injury.
  • Lost to Alex Pereira in his comeback fight.
  • Achieved a TKO win over Aleksandar Rakic.

UFC 303: Alex Pereira Betting Breakdown

Striking and Skills

Alex Pereira is renowned for his striking prowess, stemming from his background as a two-division Glory kickboxing champion. His journey in the UFC has been marked by swift ascension, notably:

  • Knockout Power: Demonstrated in his victory over Israel Adesanya and subsequent fights.
  • Leg Kicks: His calf kicks are particularly devastating, accounting for 25% or more of his total strikes in recent bouts.
  • Striking Stats:
  • Significant strikes landed per minute: 5.10
  • Accuracy: 62%
  • Significant strikes absorbed per minute: 3.65
  • Defense rate: 50%


While Pereira’s grappling has been seen as a potential weak point, his continuous improvement in this area, especially after the first bout with Prochazka, makes it a less concerning factor.

UFC 303: Jiri Prochazka Betting Breakdown

Fighting Style

Jiri Prochazka is known for his entertaining and aggressive fighting style. Key aspects include:

  • Finishing Ability: 26 of his 30 wins are by knockout, with three via submission.
  • Risk-Taking: Prochazka’s fights rarely go the distance; he aims for finishes, sometimes at the cost of defensive vulnerability.
  • Striking Stats:
  • Significant strikes landed per minute: 5.43
  • Accuracy: 56%
  • Significant strikes absorbed per minute: 5.43
  • Defense rate: 41%


Prochazka’s low guard and susceptibility to calf kicks were exploited by Pereira in their first encounter. His willingness to engage in risky exchanges can often leave him exposed.

Takeaways from Pereira vs. Prochazka 1

In their first fight (UFC 295), Pereira effectively targeted Prochazka’s lead leg to disrupt his balance and movement, which opened opportunities for higher strikes. Prochazka's risk-taking and defensive lapses played into Pereira's technical strengths and power.

Comparison Table: Key Stats

FighterStrikes Landed/MinStrike AccuracyStrikes Absorbed/MinDefense Rate
Alex Pereira5.1062%3.6550%
Jiri Prochazka5.4356%5.4341%

Best Bets: UFC 303 Main Event

Considering the short-notice nature of this rematch and the technical disparity observed in their first fight, it seems reasonable that Alex Pereira will replicate his previous success.

Pereira’s superior technical skills and striking prowess make him a potentially good pick.

Recommended Bet

  • Pick: Alex Pereira to win by knockout.

UFC 303 Fight Card

  • Alex Pereira Vs Jiří Procházka (Light Heavyweight - Main Event - Title Fight)
  • Brian Ortega Vs Diego Lopes (Featherweight)
  • Anthony Smith Vs Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight)
  • Mayra Bueno Silva Vs Macy Chiasson (Women's Bantamweight)
  • Ian Machado Garry Vs Michael Page (Welterweight)
  • Joe Pyfer Vs Marc-Andre Barriault (Middleweight)
  • Cub Swanson Vs Andre Fili (Featherweight)
  • Charles Jourdain Vs Jean Silva (Featherweight)
  • Payton Talbott Vs Yanis Ghemmouri (Bantamweight)
  • Michelle Waterson-Gomez Vs Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight)
  • Andrei Arlovski Vs Martin Buday (Heavyweight)
  • Rei Tsuruya Vs Carlos Hernandez (Flyweight)
  • Ricky Simon Vs Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight)

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