The New England Patriots kick off the post-Bill Belichick era with a challenging matchup against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Week 1 of the 2024-25 NFL season.
Overview of the New Era for the Patriots
Jerod Mayo steps in as the new head coach for New England, facing the unique challenge of succeeding arguably the greatest coach in NFL history. Mayo's team is short on star power, and he will be developing a rookie quarterback in a division loaded with playoff contenders.
Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals enter the season with high expectations. With Joe Burrow returning from last year’s season-ending wrist injury, the Bengals are looking to continue their recent success despite losing key players like Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, Chidobe Awuzie, and DJ Reader. However, Cincinnati has retooled its roster, and Burrow appears healthy and ready to lead his team to another strong season.
Game Details
- Matchup: New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024 (Week 1)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
- Watch: CBS
Odds Summary:
- Moneyline: Patriots +350, Bengals -450
- Spread: Patriots +9.5 (-110), Bengals -9.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-115/-105)
Patriots vs. Bengals Moneyline
Cincinnati has struggled with slow starts over the past two seasons, beginning 0-2 both times. Despite this trend, betting on the Bengals to win outright seems wise, given the state of the Patriots. New England, under rookie head coach Jerod Mayo, will rely on Jacoby Brissett, whose career starting record is 18-30. Even if rookie Drake Maye eventually takes over, the Patriots lack the roster depth needed to pose a significant threat.
New England's offense struggled last season, ranking near the bottom in points per game, yards per play, and touchdowns scored. This season's squad does not appear much better, and the odds reflect this, as New England faces the longest odds for a division title and has the worst Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cincinnati, on the other hand, enjoys a much stronger position, with a balanced roster and a healthy Burrow ready to lead. Despite the Bengals' own shaky starts in previous seasons, they remain heavily favored against a Patriots team facing numerous challenges. Betting on the Patriots to pull off an upset would be a long shot given these circumstances.
Patriots vs. Bengals Spread
The Bengals are one of only four teams over the past five seasons to be favored by more than nine points in their opener. Despite recent struggles in season openers, we're betting on Cincinnati to cover the spread this time.
Burrow’s previous poor performances in season openers were hampered by injuries and disruptions during training camp. This season, however, he has had a complete training camp, appears fully healthy, and is prepared to play well from the start. Additionally, the Patriots' recent trade of Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon removes a key defensive piece that might have caused problems for Burrow.
While the Patriots had a solid defense last year, the loss of Judon and a lack of offensive firepower make it difficult to see them challenging a Bengals team led by an MVP candidate in Burrow. As a result, we’re backing the Bengals to cover the spread despite its size.
Patriots vs. Bengals Total
Despite Cincinnati’s strong offense, the Bengals tend to be a reliable bet for the Under. Since Burrow joined the team in 2020, their games have gone under the posted total 54% of the time. Combined with the Patriots’ offensive woes, betting on the Under seems like the smart play.
The Bengals made changes to their defense in response to a subpar performance last season. However, given the Patriots’ lack of offensive capability, it’s unlikely that they will test Cincinnati’s new-look defense effectively.
Patriots vs. Bengals Props
As of now, NFL prop bets for this game are not yet available. However, two potential prop bets to keep an eye on are:
- Evan McPherson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (TBD): McPherson is known for his powerful leg and consistency, having made at least two field goals in 25 of his 49 career games. Even if the Bengals struggle in the red zone, McPherson’s range makes him a good bet to hit the Over.
- Bengals First Offensive Touchdown Scorer: Tee Higgins (TBD): Higgins has a track record of scoring the Bengals’ first touchdown and was Burrow’s target for a preseason touchdown pass. With Ja’Marr Chase potentially missing the opener, Higgins’ chances of scoring increase.
Patriots vs. Bengals Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Bengals (-450). Despite the low value, it's unlikely that Burrow loses at home to a team with minimal talent.
- Spread: Bengals -9.5 (-110). Although a large number to cover, the Patriots' offensive struggles make the Bengals the better bet.
- Over/Under: Under 40.5 (-105). With the Patriots' offensive limitations and Cincinnati's tendency to hit the Under, a low-scoring game is expected.
- Prop 1: Evan McPherson Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (TBD). McPherson's leg and scoring opportunities should give him ample chances to hit this mark.
- Prop 2: Bengals First Offensive Touchdown Scorer: Tee Higgins (TBD). With Chase's potential absence, Higgins is a prime candidate to score.
Overall, the game leans heavily in favor of Cincinnati, with the Bengals expected to win comfortably in Week 1.