One of the most popular betting markets before the season kicks off is - NFL teams' season win
totals. There are lines set for all 32 teams, some low, some much higher. The one thing we’ve
seen over the past few years is league parody. Last season there were 12 teams that had 8-10
wins, while one team finished with 13 and another with just 2. We’ll preview some totals that
seem to have some betting value.
New England Patriots Under 4.5 Wins (+115)
For the first time since forever, the Patriots are without Bill Bellichick and coming off a season
with just four wins, which many felt they were lucky to get. Two of New England’s victories
came against Zach Wilson and the Jets and Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers. The Pats have a
new coach in Jerod Mayo, drafted Drake Maye third overall but they are in a rebuild this season.
They were dead last averaging just 14 points last season, and things likely won’t get better in
2024. New England has one of the hardest schedules in the NFL and play a majority of games
against teams with a win total of 9.5 or higher and just three games against teams with a win
total of less than 7.5. Their first six games are against Cincinnati, Seattle, Jets, 49ers, Dolphins
and the Jaguars. The Pats could be chasing the first overall pick before Halloween. Take the
plus money with the under.
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-140)
I know what you’re thinking, ‘but Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as head coach’
which is true. But last season the Steelers were lucky. They finished 10-7, were 5-1 in the
division, and 9-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. This season, Pittsburgh has the
toughest schedule in football including its’ final eight games. Here’s what awaits Steeler Nation
from Week 11: Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas
City, Cincinnati. Russell Wilson and Justin Fields could change their fortunes but it will be tough
for this team to hit this total with such an unfavorable schedule that’s why you have to lean
towards the under.
Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 Wins (+115)
Another AFC North team that could have the third most difficult schedule in the NFL and play
against tough divisional opponents. Sure the Browns have one of the top defenses in the
league but Cleveland was 5-0 in 3-point games, and 6-2 in games decided by 7 points or less.
While the Browns gave up the fewest points at home, they allowed the most points per game on
the road. And this season, they will play 9 games away from Cleveland. Yes, Deshaun Watson
is expected to finally play a full season but with the plus money on the under, I feel this Browns
team is destined to take a step back this coming season.