2021 Heisman Trophy Favorites
DeVonta Smith became the first wide receiver to win the Heisman Trophy in almost three decades last season. Smith had a sensational year, hauling in 117 passes for 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns to set numerous Alabama single-season and career records. He surpassed recent legends like Julio Jones and Amari Cooper to write his name all over the record book, becoming the second Crimson Tide player to claim the Heisman Trophy in the process. Smith’s win is the exception and not the rule though. Quarterbacks have dominated the list of recent Heisman Trophy winners. Since 2000, 17 quarterbacks have won the award compared to just three running backs and one wide receiver. Who Will Win the 2021 Heisman Trophy? Favorites Given the love for quarterbacks, all the primary contenders for the 2021 Heisman Trophy are signal callers for title contenders. Spencer Rattler is the overall favorite. Oklahoma came on strong at the end of the year, and Rattler shook off a rough start to post solid numbers. He led the Sooners to a 55-20 blowout of Florida in the Cotton Bowl, and he should be even better in 2021 with another offseason to improve under Lincoln Riley. Two of the last four Heisman Trophy winners (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray) have come from Oklahoma. We saw DJ Uiagalelei thrive against Boston College and Notre Dame when Trevor Lawrence was sidelined because of COVID. Uiagalelei is poised to pick up right where Lawrence left off. He was considered one of the most talented high school quarterbacks in recent memory, so Uiagalelei should thrive in this offense. However, he may not put up the numbers needed to win the Heisman Trophy as Dabo Swinney is known for bringing in his backups early. Whoever lines up under center for Alabama has to be considered a favorite too after the season Mac Jones just had for the Crimson Tide. Bryce Young looks likely to step into the starting role with Jones declaring for the NFL Draft. Young was a five-star recruit out of high school that has had a year to learn in this offense, and his dual-threat ability has drawn multiple comparisons to Kyler Murray. Challengers Sam Howell has thrived in his two seasons at North Carolina. He might be the first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft. Howell has thrown for over 3,500 yards with 30 touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, and he averaged 10.3 YPA last year. A strong performance against Clemson could be enough to put Howell over the top, and we saw the Tigers look shaky in the secondary against Justin Fields and Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. USC’s Kedon Slovis is a player to keep an eye on too. The Trojans largely flew under the radar as the Pac 12 season was stunted and no team was a title contender, but Slovis has the potential to put up big numbers in offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s offense. Harrell and the Trojans are going full Air Raid for the 2021 season though, so Slovis will receive a lot of attention if USC is a top ten team. 2021 Heisman Trophy Prediction Another former USC signal caller is my pick to win this year’s Heisman Trophy. For whatever reason, it took Kirby Smart a while to realize that J.T. Daniels was the best quarterback on the roster, but Daniels is the clear starter for Georgia entering the 2021 season. This year should have been a wake-up call for Smart. The era of game managers leading their teams to national championships is over, and he might have had the same epiphany that mentor Nick Saban had a few years ago. Daniels shined in his four games under center for Georgia. He completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,231 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Daniels averaged at least 10.0 YPA in three of his four starts, and he three excellent young receivers in George Pickens, Kearis Jackson, and Jermaine Burton. Everything is in place for Daniels to thrive in this system, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken was known for letting it fly during his time as an NFL OC.
Taking An Early Look At The 2022 CFP
To no one’s surprise, the favorites to win the 2022 college football championship are the Alabama Crimson Tide. Nick Saban has cemented his legacy as the greatest coach in the history of the sport with his seventh national championship earlier this week. Alabama has now won six titles since Saban came to Tuscaloosa in 2007, rejuvenating a program that had fallen on hard times and making it stronger than ever before. Top Five Contenders…Then Everyone Else There is a clear separation between the top five teams entering next season and everyone else. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma are all college football blue bloods, and they have proven to be consistent in the College Football Playoff era. The Crimson Tide will lose a lot of offensive weapons from this year’s team, but Saban has continually reloaded during his time at Alabama. Saban’s worst record since 2008 was a mark of 10-3, and he hasn’t lost more than two games in any other season besides his first in Tuscaloosa. Alabama’s defense should be a lot better too, as this year’s team was the worst on that side of the ball during his tenure here. Clemson looks to have another sensational quarterback in DJ Uiagalelei, and the Tigers have ruled the ACC like no other program has dominated its conference over the last six years. That has led to Clemson making six straight appearances in the College Football Playoff, so it’s impossible to count out the Tigers even if future No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence is in the NFL. The Bulldogs are one of just two teams (along with Ohio State) that recruit at the same level as Alabama. They have finally found their quarterback in JT Daniels, and he can bring this offense into the 21st Century. Georgia had the best defense in the nation according to SP+ in 2020. Kirby Smart knows defense better than any other coach in the game today (including Saban), and the only thing that has been missing is a quarterback. The Bulldogs have an awesome run game and some very talented receivers, like George Pickens, so the sky is the limit with a healthy Daniels. The Longer Shots When you are looking for value further down the board, it’s important to look at the Blue Chip Ratio. This measure looks at the four- and five-star recruits a team has signed. The last ten national champions have all had a Blue Chip Ratio of at least 50 percent, making this a strong indicator to determine whether a team can win it all or not. That measure eliminates Iowa State, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Oregon from title contention. Those four teams are all going to be seen as trendy longshots, but don’t fall into that trap. They simply don’t have the horses to compete over the length of a long season, and you might be better served betting on a Group of Five team due to the continued backlash over how the Selection Committee treats teams outside of the Power Five. The two most tempting longshots are Texas A&M and Penn State. Jimbo Fisher is in the process of building a powerhouse in College Station just as he did with Florida State, and the loss of Kellen Mond won’t hurt nearly as much as some believe. The Aggies don’t have anyone that should give them a challenge in their non-conference schedule, and they host both Alabama and Auburn. Penn State had a nightmare 2020 season, but James Franklin is one of the best coaches in college football. The Nittany Lions continue to recruit well, and it’s highly unlikely they suffer the bad breaks that submarined last year’s campaign.
First Receiver In 2020 NFL Draft?
The NFL offseason is heading toward the Draft in late April. The draft won’t be held outdoors at a Las Vegas casino, but it will go on. It’s not as though athletes will be in close physical proximity to each other. They will simply be notified by the teams which pick them. This is something which can go off as scheduled; the playing of actual games is what the coronavirus makes impossible (or at least, very unlikely) at this point in time. When the draft occurs in just over three weeks, which receivers will be taken, and in what order, in the first round? Here are the leading candidates for the first receiver taken in the 2020 draft: CEEDEE LAMB The explosive receiver for the University of Oklahoma went through some injury problems, which could cause him to fall a few spots down the draft board. He also played in a pass-happy Big 12 Conference, whereas some of the other receivers on this list played in the more physically imposing SEC. Yet, Lamb was so lethally potent for the Sooners in his collegiate career that he might still be the first receiver taken. Keep in mind that when Lamb was injured and out of the lineup, Oklahoma’s passing game was a lot weaker. Lamb’s absence in certain games made it clear how valuable he was to his team. That is something scouts will notice. He is an electric playmaker who will be impossible to ignore at draft time. JERRY JEUDY The man with a really good chance of being the first receiver taken – arguably better than Lamb – is Jeudy. He is not the fastest receiver from the University of Alabama. That distinction goes to teammate Henry Ruggs. However, Jeudy is plenty fast and is widely considered a better route runner who does a superior job – compared to Ruggs – of getting open and creating space between himself and opposing cornerbacks. Jeudy helped make Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa look very good over the past two seasons. His technique and instincts are exceptionally sound, and he played tougher collegiate competition than Lamb did at Oklahoma. The pricing of these odds puts Lamb as the favorite, but Jeudy looks like the superior receiver when studied on film and when placed into a larger context. HENRY RUGGS The other elite Alabama receiver in this draft class ran a 4.28 40-yard dash, making him the only player at the 2020 NFL Combine to crack the 4.3-second barrier. However, in the process of running that exceptionally fast time, Ruggs did suffer an injury, so teams are going to be at least somewhat cautious about taking him very early in the draft. He probably will be taken in the first round, but it will be hard to expect him to go in the top 10, and probably even in the top 15. Injuries are generally worth a few draft spots, if not more, for players who suffer them during the combine. That will be too much of an obstacle for Ruggs to overcome. THE FIELD The elite quality of Jerry Jeudy makes it virtually impossible to think any receiver outside this top three will go first. Jeudy and Lamb are both exceptionally talented, and evaluators can see that. Don’t go for a dark-horse option here.
College Football Championship Odds
The best College Football programs in the country continue to keep on winning, so we really haven’t seen too many big shake-ups in reference of the College Football betting odds. The top schools remain the same, with Alabama and Clemson the favorites to win the CFP National Championship. The odds on the major three contenders at the start of the year, Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have decreased after strong starts from all three schools. One of those five schools is very likely to be crowned this year’s champion, but a sixth contender has emerged too. Odds to Win the 2019 CFP National Championship Alabama +275 Clemson +275 Ohio State +550 Georgia +700 LSU +700 Oklahoma +900 Florida +2000 Penn State +3300 Michigan +4000 Utah +4000 Auburn +5000 Notre Dame +5000 Oregon +5000 Texas +5000 Baylor +10000 Boise State +10000 SMU +10000 Arizona State +15000 Iowa +15000 Minnesota +15000 Michigan State +25000 Washington +25000 Oklahoma State +50000 Virginia +50000 All Other Schools +25000 or More CLEMSON TIGERS are still the favorite after a 2-0 start, and the Tigers have one of the best wins in the country with a 24-10 victory over Texas A&M last week. However, their CFP National Championship odds have risen after a somewhat rough start to the season for Trevor Lawrence. The star quarterback has not looked sharp, but he is likely to tear up Syracuse’s abysmal defense this Saturday. As we said last week, the CRIMSON TIDE won’t be tested until they take on Texas A&M in College Station in early October. They will be favored by 20 or more points in every game per the college football betting odds until they face the Aggies, and Alabama is a massive 25.5-point road favorite against South Carolina. They key for the Tide is to avoid injury over their next three games, especially among a decimated linebacking corps. The GEORGIA BULLDOGS took full advantage of their opportunity to make a statement when the Bulldogs beat NOTRE DAME 23-17 at home. With the loss, the Fighting Irish are not out of the race just yet but dropped two places down to be ranked No. 9 in the country. With the Bulldogs win, they should have no problem entering November with an undefeated record, making them a solid option to bet at this point of the season. The next two teams on the list were 14-1 at the start of the season due to some major questions. OKLAHOMA was replacing a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback and installing a new defense, while OHIO STATE was replacing a legendary coach and a quarterback that was selected in the first round.Both schools have seen their odds dip to 9-1 after impressive outings in their first two games with Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts is looking superb. Neither team has missed a beat with their new signal callers, and these two schools are the favorites to win their conferences per NCAA Futures odds. There has been significant movement on LSU’s odds after a fantastic start to the season for the Tigers. Joe Burrow has looked like the real deal at quarterback, and for once, the talk that LSU might have a solid passing game doesn’t simply appear to be lip service. The couple weeks shouldn’t be a problem after a big win on the road against Texas, but October is daunting with Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn on the schedule before facing #1 ranked Alabama. If LSU has a zero in the loss column prior to heading to Tuscaloosa, the Tigers stand a great chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff even if they lose to Bama and don’t make it to Atlanta. If you’re looking for a flyer that can pay off in a big way, there is enormous value in Iowa State at 250-1. The odds on the Cyclones tanked after they needed overtime to survive FCS Northern Iowa, but they were the second- or third-best team in the Big 12 at the start of the season. Iowa State is a short underdog against Iowa at home this Saturday, and a Cyclones victory should lead to their odds being 100-1 or so next week. They don’t face either Oklahoma or Texas until November, and a win would likely mean Iowa State will be favored in every game before those two.
Win Your Bracket By Picking The Final Four First?
NCAA Tournament 2019: Win Your Bracket by Picking the Final Four First While upsets are plentiful early in the tournament, it’s uncommon that higher seeds advance past the Final Four. Since 1985 (when the tournament went to 64 teams), 17% of the time did a team with higher than #4 seed make it to The Final Four; 13% did a team reach the Final Game and only 9% of the time did a seed higher than four seed win the Championship. A wise “bracket-man” once said, “Select your Final Four first. Next, pick your Final Game and Champion. And only then, start picking teams in the first Round games on Thursday and Friday.” NCAA Tournament 2019: Number of Times Each Seed Made the Final Four Seed Final 4 Final Game Title 1 56 33 21 2 28 12 5 3 16 11 4 4 13 3 1 5 6 3 0 6 3 2 1 7 3 1 1 8 5 3 1 9 1 0 0 10 1 0 0 11 4 0 0 12 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 15 0 0 0 16 0 0 0
Why You Should Get Into Sports Betting
Let’s face it—there are currently more different types of gambling with a greater degree of accessibility than at any other point in history. In the United States alone, land based gambling is ubiquitous. Only 6 of the 50 states don’t have a state lottery and only 2 have no form of gambling whatsoever available to their citizens (Utah and Hawaii). Throw in tribal bingo halls and casinos and the massive online gambling presence and its safe to say that no matter where you live in the world you have access to multiple forms of gambling if you know where to look for it. So why should you focus on sports betting when you already have so many different forms of gambling already available to you? Sports betting is unique among the various types of gambling for several reasons: SPORTS BETTING IS A STATISTICALLY ‘BEATABLE’ FORM OF GAMBLING: Virtually every other form of gambling from lotteries to slot machines have a fixed and significant ‘house edge’ built that guarantees that the player will lose money in the long run. This edge ranges from a 50% ‘hold percentage’ that lotteries enjoy down to less than 1% for full pay slot machines in Nevada. Sports betting doesn’t have a set ‘hold percentage’. On most ‘straight bets’, there is a small ‘commission’ paid to the sportsbook on losing bets (11 to 10 or $110 to win $100). At 11 to 10 that makes a player’s ‘break even point’ is slightly above 50% (52.38% to be precise). Other types of bets don’t have a ‘commission’ as such but do have a percentage of ‘vig’ built in. It’s a significant challenge for a sports bettor to stay above breakeven in the long term but it is possible. INTELLECTUALLY DEMANDING, NEVER BORING: To gamble on sports successfully is extremely challenging intellectually. It’s always changing and evolving on both a macro and micro level and it is definitely never boring. This is in my opinion the crux of its appeal. Many (if not most) other forms of gambling are very repetitive and occasionally monotonous. Playing video poker or slots is definitely this way with players spending long hours in front of a machine. Playing poker also involves long hours of sitting and waiting only to throw away most hands you’re dealt. That’s not the case with sports betting—the different approaches you can take to sports betting are endless. You’ll never run out of new strategies to try, new types of bets to make and different sports to handicap. It’s always a challenging and fascinating process no matter your level of experience or skill. EASE OF PLACING BETS AND WORKING WITHIN YOUR LIFESTYLE: I’ve tried most forms of gambling where I have a realistic chance of beating the ‘house edge’ at various points. Not only did I find most tedious sports betting was a perfect fit with my lifestyle. In fact, no matter what your lifestyle is you can make sports betting work within it. Most other ‘beatable’ forms of gambling just can’t offer this advantage. A professional poker player has to spend hours inside cramped, smoky casinos and card rooms. Best case scenario, they spend untold hours online trying to maintain focus. You don’t even need to go into a casino to place bets if you don’t want to. Nor do you have to be at home in front of your computer. Virtually every sportsbook offers mobile smartphone wagering that gives you the luxury of betting anywhere you want. IT’S EXTREMELY ENJOYABLE AND ENHANCES THE EXPERIENCE OF WATCHING SPORTS: Bottom line—it’s a lot of fun. It’s always challenging and interesting. For a sports fan, it can greatly enhance the experience of watching games. For a sports bettor, otherwise meaningless events like regular season NBA games or preseason NFL action becomes a moneymaking opportunity and a chance to learn more about the intricacies of handicapping.
The History Of The Point Spread
The advent of the pointspread literally transformed sports betting in the United States. For most of the 20th century there was little interest in sports betting and particularly on football. Many games were mismatches where the winner was a foregone conclusion. These had little, if any, betting interest since players didn’t want to lay the huge odds on the favorite nor did they want to back the underdog no matter how much they were getting in return. For that reason, horse racing had significantly more betting interest until the middle of the 20th century. Historically, there’s no real consensus as to the point spread’s origin or for that matter who came up with it in the first place. It likely came into use in the United States in Minneapolis during the 1930s with several different bookmakers claiming to be the inventor including Carl Ersine and Darby Hicks. For several decades the ‘Minneapolis Line’ became the most respected in the country and was distributed nationwide. Despite the clear evidence that the pointspread predated him by a decade the origin is often credited to Connecticut math teacher Charles K. McNeil. During the 1940’s he decided to make a career ‘pivot’ and became a bookmaker in Chicago. McNeil became successful on both sides of the counter working out of his ersatz ‘office’ at the Gym Club in Chicago. The point spread make him one of the most influential bookies in American but many of his associates thought that he was more adept at betting and viewed his handicapping ability with extreme respect. THE POINTSPREAD COMES TO THE MAINSTREAM McNeil is frequently credited with the invention of the pointspread but those with an extensive understanding of the history of sports betting dismiss this narrative. There’s even a school of thought that it began not in the United States but in Australia and New Zealand to create more interest in rugby betting. Even if McNeil didn’t invent the pointspread he’s viewed in much the same way as Henry Ford is in automotive history—as the person who brought it to the masses. He’s often credited with improving and popularizing its use. Sports book history export Mort Olshan sums it up by saying “McNeil might not have invented the pointspread but he certainly refined it”. With all due respect to McNeil’s importance in improving the pointspread and raising its profile within the gambling community the opinion that he is the primary source for its widespread uses is also highly questionable. The individual who is likely responsible for bringing the pointspread to the collective consciousness of the masses was Las Vegas bookmaker turned major celebrity Jimmy ‘The Greek’ Snyder. ‘The Greek’ found rock star like fame from being part of the top rated NFL pregame show on network television. As unfathomable as it seems now, he contributed his handicapping and betting insights on ‘The NFL Today’ along with Brent Musburger, Irv Cross and Phyllis George. What most don’t know is that Jimmy ‘The Greek’ was fairly well known long before he was hired by CBS. As manager of the downtown Las Vegas Sports and Turf Club he became the mainstream media’s top source for anything sports or betting related. He was such a fixture in the media that he earned the sobriquet ‘America’s Bookmaker’. This modest fame brought him to the attention of CBS and his stint on ‘The NFL Today’ made him a household name. ‘The Greek’ is now considered an anachronism of the 1970’s best known for his ham handed comments on the genetic origins of African American athletic ability than anything else. The reality is that he deserves credit more than anyone for introducing the point spread and basic handicapping concepts introduced the concept of the pointspread to the larger, non-gambling public. It’s not a stretch to say that he brought sports betting to ‘flyover country’ and establishing the NFL as the USA’s top betting sport.
Online Sportsbooks Are Your Best Bet
No matter where you live in the world you’ve likely got a multitude of gambling options. This is true not only for casino gambling but for sports betting as well. In fact, sports betting is one of the few segments of the gambling industry that experienced consistent growth over the past decade. Given the growth trends of the industry and regulatory changes in countries around the world its almost certain that options for sports bettors will increase in the years ahead. Despite the increased number of bookmakers of all shapes and sizes throughout the world the best option for most sports bettors remains the same. Online betting offers more advantages and fewer disadvantages than any other bookmaking option. Sports betting has a razor thin margin between success and failure, between profit and loss. Every incremental edge must be taken to maximize your chances of success. A bettor simply can’t afford to be giving up even a fractional advantage due to laziness or poor choices. THE SMART MONEY PLAYS ONLINE There are hundreds of bookmakers in the state of Nevada with most in the Las Vegas area. Even so, every ‘sharp’ bettor in the state has any number of online sportsbooks. These ‘wise guys’ know what’s what. They play online for the same reasons that you should—it’s incredibly convenient, offers a wider variety of sports and bets and a more dynamic and competitive odds environment. You’ll find a bookmaker on every corner in Las Vegas but for serious sports bettors nothing beats playing online. You can do it from anywhere—home, office even on your smartphone. You don’t have to hang around inside of a smoky, dingy casino to place and track your bets. The entire betting board is available to you anywhere with an Internet connection. Nevada sportsbook primary focus is ‘risk management’. They just want to minimize their downside exposure and hope they’ll grind out a profit every month in order to keep ‘the suits’ happy and off their backs. They’re not interested in ‘taking bets’ anymore. That’s not the case with most online books. You’ll find betting odds on sports that Las Vegas bookmakers won’t touch–European basketball and hockey, a world of soccer betting and even ones that are unfamiliar to American bettors such as snooker, cricket and darts. MORE SPORTS AND MORE BETS The variety of sports available at an online sportsbook is just the beginning. These bookmakers are the innovators in the industry and offer countless bets that you just won’t find in Las Vegas. There’s plenty of live betting offered. You’ll be able to bet on individual periods, quarters and halfs. You’ll have multiple lines offered on the same game at different prices. Most importantly, you’ll find dozens of innovative proposition bets that you won’t find anywhere else. Perhaps the biggest advantage of betting online is the variety of odds available at different ‘outs’. You can easily shop points with a click of the mouse and as every professional knows finding the best price for your bet is essential to long term success and profits.
Introduction To Live Betting
Contrary to what many novices believe live betting is nothing new. Sportsbooks have offered in-game or in-running betting for a couple of decades at least. European sportsbooks were likely the first to dabble in live betting since soccer lends itself particularly well to the discipline thanks to its low scores and leisurely pace. The reason live betting seems like a new and revolutionary concept is that technological developments have taken it to a new level with no end in site to the innovation. This digital revolution has allowed sportsbooks to offer live betting on a wider variety of sports and offer a greater variety of wagering options. Live betting is exactly what it says on the marquee—placing bets on a game while the game is in progress. At one point only a limited number of sportsbooks would offer this option but today virtually every bookmaking establishment has at least a nominal live betting presence. Many sportsbooks, however, are making live betting a focal point of their product mix. They like it because players like it and to a large degree the oddsmaking processes is automated with complex algorithms making the in-game adjustments to the betting odds by crunching massive amounts of data. LIVE BETTING OPTIONS VARY FROM ONE BOOKMAKER TO ANOTHER The specific sports and bets offered by bookmakers vary widely. At the very least, books will offer updated lines at halftime or between quarters/periods. The more serious live betting providers will offer new prices and betting options during play stoppages like time outs or TV breaks. The basic live betting options will be revised sides and totals based on interceding action from when the line was originally posted. A NFL football favorite might be -3’ before a game and quickly score a couple of touchdowns after kickoff. In live betting the line might quickly be revised to -7’. Other live betting options have been driven by the improving technology and are proliferating due to creative bookmaking and player demand. For example, many books now offer in game prop bets such as statistical over/under wagers (eg: passing yardage by a quarterback) or event driven propositions such as ‘next team to score’. Many live betting platforms offer players the opportunity to parlay these options and in some cases set up ‘open parlays’ that they can add new wagers to as play progresses. LIVE BETTING APPEALS TO PLAYERS OF ALL TYPES Sportsbooks like to offer live betting for a variety of reasons but one of the most compelling is its wide range of appeal. Recreational players and ‘action junkies’ enjoy the adrenalin rush of placing and (hopefully) winning bets in a matter of seconds. If a player likes to wager on a sporting event to ‘make it interesting’ live betting lets him take it to a even higher degree of immersion. Traditional sports wagering is essentially a passive activity. A player places a bet and waits to see the outcome. He may watch the game on television or follow along on a score ticker but that is the extent of his involvement. Live betting requires that the player play very close attention and the never ending stream of betting options makes it a very mentally and emotionally active process. Sharp players also like live betting. In fact, some bookmakers give the ‘wise guys’ credit for driving the initial adoption of live betting. It provides a greater number of wagering opportunities from start to finish and that gives an adept player countless options. He can take advantage of a bad line when they occur, he can increase the size of a pre-game or hedge due to changing circumstances. He can also get off a bet entirely or set up a middle opportunity. The discipline and comprehensive knowledge of the game that the best bettors possess can be leveraged for even more profit and winning bets.