The Debate's Impact on Biden's Campaign
Performance Issues
President Joe Biden's performance in the June 27 debate against Donald Trump has raised concerns about his mental fitness. During the debate, the 81-year-old appeared confused and exhausted, leading to doubts about his capability to serve another term.
Voter Confidence
An Ipsos poll showed a drop in voter confidence regarding Biden's mental fitness, falling from 28% to 20% post-debate. This shift has intensified existing dissatisfaction with Biden's handling of key issues like inflation, the Gaza war, and immigration.
Poll Shifts
- Brookings Institution Analysis: Trump gained an average of 3.5 points after the debate, increasing his lead from 1.5 to 3.5 points over Biden.
- Ipsos Poll: Post-debate voter support for Biden and Trump tied at 40%.
Calls for Biden to Step Aside
Democratic Representatives
Five House Democrats have called for Biden to withdraw:
- Seth Moulton (Massachusetts)
- Lloyd Doggett (Texas)
- Raul Grijalva (Arizona)
- Mike Quigley (Illinois)
- Angie Craig (Minnesota)
Internal Party Discussions
A virtual meeting convened by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries discussed pressuring Biden to step down.
Will Biden Withdraw Before the Democratic Convention?
Current Odds:
- No: -300
- Yes: +200
Potential Scenarios if Biden Withdraws
Nomination Process
If Biden steps down before the August 19-22 Democratic National Convention, the party could nominate another candidate.
The 25th Amendment provides a mechanism for removing a president deemed unfit, requiring a declaration from the VP and a majority of Congress, followed by a two-thirds majority vote if contested.
Kamala Harris as a Replacement
Vice President Kamala Harris is a straightforward replacement, inheriting Biden’s campaign funds, but her approval ratings are similarly low.
Potential Candidates
| Candidate | Current Role | Voter Support (Ipsos) |
| Kamala Harris | Vice President | 43% |
| Gavin Newsom | Governor of California | 39% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | Governor of Michigan | 36% |
| JB Pritzker | Governor of Illinois | 34% |
| Josh Shapiro | Governor of Pennsylvania | 57% (Siena College) |
Donor Influence
Financial Pressure
Donors play a significant role and some have called for Biden to step down, including former PayPal CEO William “Bill” Harris. Harris leads a group pledging $2 million for debates among potential Democratic candidates. Hollywood producer Damon Lindelof has urged fellow donors to withhold donations until Biden steps down.
Major Donors' Stance
Currently, the Biden campaign’s biggest donors, such as Future Forward USA Action and venture capital firms Greylock Partners and Sequoia Capital, have not called for his resignation.
Conclusion
President Biden has firmly rejected calls to step aside, emphasizing that the voters have chosen him. He has challenged Democratic elites to contest his nomination at the upcoming convention. Whether Biden will withdraw remains uncertain, but the pressure from within his party and external donors continues to mount.