With the 98th Academy Awards just two weeks away, the race for Best Picture has reached a fever pitch. While critics are hailing this as one of the most competitive years in recent memory, the oddsmakers see a much clearer picture: Paul Thomas Anderson is finally on the verge of his first Best Picture win.
One Battle After Another (-525) has emerged as a massive frontrunner following its victory at the Producers Guild Awards (PGA). Anderson’s satirical, high-octane adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland—starring a pajama-clad Leonardo DiCaprio—has swept the major precursors, positioning PTA as the prohibitive favorite to win both Picture and Director.
However, a history-making challenger remains in the rearview:
- The Record Breaker: Ryan Coogler’s Sinners (+325) enters the night with a staggering 16 nominations, the most for any film in Oscar history. This 1930s supernatural thriller, which pits Michael B. Jordan against Mississippi vampires, recently shocked the industry with a win for Outstanding Performance by a Cast at the Actor Awards. At +325, the market suggests that if an upset occurs, it will be the "Coogler Effect" that delivers it.
- The Emotional Anchor: Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (+2200) remains the darling of the "prestige" crowd. While Jessie Buckley is the heavy favorite to win Best Actress, the film’s Best Picture odds have drifted as the momentum has swung toward the technical spectacle of the two frontrunners.
- The Longshots: The board features a steep drop-off after the top three. Marty Supreme (+5500), the Josh Safdie-directed ping-pong epic starring Timothée Chalamet, is a cult favorite but faces long odds for the top prize. Further down, genre entries like Frankenstein (+40000) and summer blockbusters like F1: The Movie (+50000) are largely viewed as "happy to be nominated" contenders.
Best Picture Odds:
- One Battle After Another: -525
- Sinners: +325
- Hamnet: +2200
- Marty Supreme: +5500
- Sentimental Value: +20000
- Frankenstein: +40000
- Bugonia: +50000
- F1: The Movie: +50000
- The Secret Agent: +50000
- Train Dreams: +50000