Texans at Titans (PK, T-38)
The Texans have nothing to play for in this one, and by the sounds of it, neither do the Titans. Houston has the AFC South and No. 4 seed already locked, and DeMeco Ryans will rest a bunch of his starters. The Texans are 3-4-1 ATS on the road this season, and don’t expect them to show much as they prepare for the playoffs. Tennessee coach Brian Callahan says quarterbacks Will Levis and Mason Rudolph will both play, but this team still has a 10.1% chance to hold the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. A win would erase all chances. The Titans are 0-7 ATS at home this season, the only team in the NFL without an ATS win at their own stadium.
THE PICK: UNDER 38
Bills (-3, T-38) at Patriots
The Bills are locked into the No. 2 spot in the AFC and don’t have much to play for against a team trying to secure the first overall pick in the draft. Josh Allen will play to continue his streak of starts but will likely leave the game early for Mitchell Trubisky. For New England, there is not much motivation to win this game; they have a 78% chance for that top pick, and a loss would guarantee the first overall selection. Expect both teams to run the ball often, chew the clock, and either move into the playoffs or prepare for the draft. The Patriots are 2-4-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium, while the Bills are 5-3 ATS on the road.
THE PICK: UNDER 38
Seahawks (-3, T-39.5) at Rams
This could have been for the division, but the Rams have clinched the NFC West, eliminating the Seahawks from the playoffs. The look-ahead line for this game was Rams -5.5, but it has shifted to Seattle -3 as Los Angeles is planning to rest most of its starters. While there is no postseason for Seattle, the team still has something to play for: jobs next season. Geno Smith is trying to earn another contract, among others. Seattle is 4-2-1 ATS on the road, while the Rams are 3-5 ATS at SoFi Stadium.
THE PICK: Seahawks -3
Bears at Packers (-9.5, T-40)
Green Bay opened at -3 but quickly ballooned to -9.5 because the Packers are still fighting for seeding in the NFC. Right now, the Packers are the No. 7 seed and can move to No. 6 with a win and a loss by the Commanders. Green Bay is 5-3 ATS at home this season with an average margin of victory of 11.5 points. They face a Bears team that is 1-5-1 ATS on the road this season and already eliminated from playoff contention. Green Bay has beaten the Bears in 11 straight games.
THE PICK: Packers -9.5