Location: Target Center, St. Paul, MN
Date: Thursday, May 30, 2024
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: TNT
The Minnesota Timberwolves managed to avoid elimination on the road in Game 5 and now return to their home court with renewed hope. Can they keep their playoff hopes alive on Thursday night?
Before Game 4, Anthony Edwards warned the Dallas Mavericks not to let the Timberwolves win, saying, “They better get rid of us.” The Mavericks failed to do so, leading to a crucial Game 5 tonight.
The series, which many expected to end quickly, now seems poised to go at least six games. Recent history suggests Minnesota thrives in high-pressure situations.
Game 5 Odds
- Spread: Dallas +4.5 | Minnesota -4.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +163 | Minnesota -183
- Over/Under: 209.5
Analysis
Since their dominant first-round victory over the Suns, Minnesota has won five games, all of which hit the Under. Each victory came when the Timberwolves played with desperation.
Game Breakdown
- Desperation Factor: Minnesota has excelled in high-stakes games. They were significant underdogs against Denver but won the first two games on the road. After losing two home games, they bounced back to win Game 6 and the decisive Game 7 on the road.
- Defensive Performance: Minnesota's success hinges on their defense. They posted a 107.6 defensive rating in the first two playoff rounds, which soared to 118.5 in the first three games against Dallas but dropped back to 107.5 in Game 4.
- Impact of Injuries: The Mavericks’ defense weakened with the loss of Dereck Lively II, who is questionable for Game 5. Minnesota must capitalize on this advantage while reducing turnovers to avoid giving Dallas easy points.
Anthony Edwards’ Role
- Increased Aggression: Edwards' fatigue was evident in Games 1 and 2, where he took many shots from beyond the arc. However, in Games 3 and 4, he increased his drives to the basket, creating more scoring opportunities.
- Statistical Impact: Edwards has averaged 8.8 rebounds and 8.3 assists in this series, demonstrating his all-around impact on the game.
Betting Trends
- Dallas: The Mavericks are 4-4 outright in eight postseason games that hit the Under and 7-1 in games that hit the Over.
- Minnesota: Following their Game 4 win, the Timberwolves opened as 4-point favorites for Game 5, with the spread rising to -4.5 and even -5 at some sportsbooks.
Key Injuries
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | Position | Status | Reported |
| Jaylen Clark | SG | Out indefinitely - Achilles | Sun, March 3 |
| Mike Conley | PG | Questionable - Achilles | Wed, May 29 |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | Position | Status | Reported |
| Dereck Lively II | C | Questionable - Neck | Wed, May 29 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | PF | Out indefinitely - Ankle | Mon, May 6 |
| Greg Brown III | SF | Out indefinitely - Personal | Wed, April 10 |
The Timberwolves’ chances in Game 5 depend heavily on their defense and Anthony Edwards’ aggressive play. With key injuries affecting both teams, the game’s outcome is uncertain but promises to be a thrilling contest.
Betting on the Timberwolves moneyline with the Under 209.5 could offer value - based on recent trends and the high-stakes nature of this playoff series.