The Arizona Diamondbacks are on a hot streak, winning eight of their last ten games, and now they face the Cleveland Guardians, a team struggling to contain runs. This matchup promises a high-scoring game at Progressive Field.
Game Info
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Date: Monday, 8-5-2024
- First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- TV: ARID, BSGL
- Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen (9-5, 3.56 ERA)
- Guardians Starting Pitcher: Logan Allen (8-4, 5.67 ERA)
Opening Odds @ BetOnline
- Run Line: Arizona -1.5 (+125) | Cleveland +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Arizona -132 | Cleveland +112
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Prediction and Best Bet
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
Analysis
Several factors point to a high-scoring game tonight. This writer expects at least 9 runs, so getting the over at 8.5 offers a little perceived value.
Logan Allen's Struggles
Logan Allen has had a tough season, with an expected ERA above 5.5, placing him in the bottom 5% of MLB pitchers. In his last four starts, three have gone over the total, with Allen allowing four or more runs in each of those games.
His biggest issue is giving up hard contact, ranking in the bottom 5% for average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. The Diamondbacks excel against left-handed pitchers, boasting the 10th-best hard-hit rate and 8th-best isolated power rating against southpaws. Additionally, they rank in the top five for slugging percentage, batting average, and BABIP.
Zac Gallen's Road Woes
Zac Gallen has been stellar at home but struggles on the road, with a road ERA nearly two runs higher than at home.
Despite being a more efficient pitcher than Allen, Gallen also faces issues with hard contact, ranking in the bottom ten percentile for hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.
Cleveland has been quietly effective offensively, with key players like Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas, and Jose Ramirez having solid power numbers. These factors suggest that the Guardians can also put up runs against Gallen.
Betting Trends
- The Diamondbacks have won 35 of their last 55 games
- Arizona has dominated the head-to-head series, winning seven of the last ten games.
- Cleveland has seen some early betting action, moving their money line from +112 to +105 in some spots.
Player Prop: Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Bases
Take Ketel Marte to exceed 1.5 bases. Marte is one of the hardest hitters in tonight's lineup and performs well against left-handed pitching. Given Logan Allen's propensity to give up hard contact, Marte is positioned to have a productive night at the plate.
Injuries
Cleveland Guardians
- Tanner Bibee (SP): Shoulder, questionable
- Sam D. Hentges (RP): Shoulder, late July
- Shane Bieber (SP): Out for season, elbow
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Bryce Jarvis (SP): Elbow, mid-August
- Christian Walker (1B): Oblique, out indefinitely
- Blake Walston (SP): Elbow, late August
Both teams are vying for postseason spots, making each game increasingly critical. With Logan Allen's struggles and Zac Gallen's road issues, expect a high-scoring game tonight at Progressive Field. Bet on the over and look for Ketel Marte to shine at the plate.