The Cincinnati Bengals are seeking their first win of the season, and a matchup against the Washington Commanders' forgiving defense in Week 3 might be exactly what Joe Burrow and the team need to get back on track.
This non-conference showdown is the second of two Monday Night Football games in Week 3, with the Bengals hosting the Commanders at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati has had a slow start to the season, falling to 0-2 after a narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday. However, our early predictions suggest that the Bengals will turn things around in Week 3. Read on for more in our NFL picks below.
Commanders vs. Bengals Predictions
Early Spread Lean: Bengals -8.5 (-105 at BetOnline)
The look-ahead line for this matchup was Bengals -7 in the summer, but after the Week 2 results, sportsbooks opened Cincinnati at -7.5, which quickly moved to the dead numbers of -8 and -8.5 early in the week.
If you’re leaning toward the Bengals, getting them at the lowest possible number is crucial. Eight is considered a "dead number" in football betting, as less than 4% of games are decided by exactly eight points. Books will often move quickly through these dead numbers, and if money continues to back Cincinnati, this spread could rise to -9 or -9.5.
After a solid performance against the Chiefs in Week 2 and the desperation to secure their first home win, public sentiment is likely to favor the Bengals. That appeal could be further boosted if star wide receiver Tee Higgins returns from injury. Higgins, who missed the first two games with a hamstring issue, is reportedly improving and may play on Monday Night Football.
His return would give the Bengals' offense a much-needed boost. After two games, Cincinnati's offense sits in the middle of the pack in most metrics but looked significantly better while scoring 25 points against Kansas City.
Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders are struggling to adjust to Dan Quinn’s defensive schemes. Washington ranks 31st in defensive DVOA and last in EPA allowed per play through two games, presenting an opportunity for the Bengals to exploit.
Early Over/Under Lean: Under 48.5 (-115 at BetOnline)
Analysis
The Bengals' defense put up a strong fight against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last Sunday, but a pass interference penalty on the final drive set up Kansas City for a game-winning field goal.
Cincinnati’s defense did an excellent job limiting Kansas City’s downfield passing attack, allowing only two offensive touchdowns and just one passing play of 20+ yards all season — a 44-yard touchdown from Mahomes. The Bengals currently rank 12th in EPA allowed per dropback.
Washington’s rookie QB Jayden Daniels appeared more comfortable in Week 2’s win against New York, but he has not been aggressive downfield, posting the lowest intended air yards per attempt in the league through two weeks (4.4). If Washington falls behind early, the Commanders may have to rely more on Daniels' arm than they prefer.
Kliff Kingsbury’s offense is running at a fast tempo, leading the league in no-huddle plays. While some advanced metrics, like EPA per play (No. 4 entering Week 3), are favorable for Washington, they rank just 20th in offensive DVOA. Facing Cincinnati’s stout defense will be their toughest test yet.
The Bengals' offense is heavily reliant on the passing game, throwing at the third-highest rate in the league, while their rushing attack is averaging a modest 3.8 yards per carry. Given the large spread, Cincinnati could build an early lead with its passing game and then shift to a slower pace and short-yardage plays in the second half to protect the lead.
Early Picks:
- Spread: Bengals -8.5 (-105) — Consider taking Cincinnati at the current number, as the line may move higher.
- Over/Under: Under 48.5 (-115) — A conservative play considering Cincinnati's strong defense and Washington's struggles with offensive consistency.
With both teams looking to find their footing, the Bengals' balanced attack and defensive strength should give them the edge in this Monday Night Football matchup.