As the Cincinnati Bengals seek their first win of the season, they face the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football. With a fully healthy receiving corps, Joe Burrow is poised to carve up a struggling Commanders secondary.
MNF Matchup Overview
Game Details
- Teams: Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Monday, September 23, 2024
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- TV: ABC
Opening Odds
| Bet Type | Odds |
| Spread | Cincinnati -7.5 / Washington +7.5 |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati -350 / Washington +275 |
| Over/Under | Over 47.5 / Under 47.5 |
Analysis
The Bengals are looking to bounce back from an 0-2 start, and the expectation is that they will score plenty of points on Monday night, which means Burrow will be heavily involved.
After a rocky Week 1 performance, Burrow rebounded with a solid game against the Chiefs, throwing for two touchdowns and 258 yards. Now, facing a Commanders defense struggling to adjust to new schemes under head coach Dan Quinn, Burrow has an excellent opportunity to excel.
Commanders’ Defensive Struggles
Washington currently ranks last in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in opponents’ success rate per pass. Quarterbacks Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones combined for a 127.6 passer rating against the Commanders, showcasing their defensive vulnerabilities.
Additionally, Washington's tendency to blitz (the fourth-highest rate in the league) plays into Burrow's strengths, as he has historically excelled against aggressive defenses.
Key Player Return
Tee Higgins will be making his 2024 debut, adding another reliable target for Burrow. With 24 touchdowns in four seasons, Higgins is crucial in the red zone and will enhance Burrow's chances of throwing multiple touchdown passes.
Week 3 projections for Burrow range from 1.89 to 2.11 touchdowns, with my estimate sitting at 2.05—this is conservative, considering the Commanders’ red-zone defense has allowed touchdowns on 75% of stands inside the 20-yard line.
Weather Considerations
Weather should not significantly impact this matchup, allowing both offenses to operate efficiently. Burrow is projected to have at least two touchdown passes against the NFL's weakest pass defense.
Betting Trends to Consider
- Cincinnati is 17-8 straight up (SU) and 14-9-2 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite since 2022. However, they have struggled when favored by six or more points, going just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS.
Latest Injuries
Cincinnati Bengals
| Player | Position | Status |
| Vonn Bell | SAF | Questionable - Back |
| Sheldon Rankins | DT | Out - Hamstring |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | Injured - Calf |
Washington Commanders
| Player | Position | Status |
| Brandon Coleman | OT | Injured - Ankle |
| Dorance Armstrong | DE | Injured - Chest |
| Benjamin St-Juste | CB | Injured - Groin |
With a determined Joe Burrow leading a fully equipped Bengals offense against a struggling Commanders defense, expect to see Burrow deliver a strong performance.
My prediction is for him to throw over 1.5 touchdowns, helping Cincinnati secure their first win of the season in a high-scoring affair on Monday Night Football - but as ever in pro-football, anything can happen.