The College Football Playoff semifinals are set as four teams vie for a spot in the CFP championship game on January 20. The final four features football-rich programs and some of the top-seven scoring defenses in the FBS. So, which teams have the edge? Let’s preview both matchups with the odds of BetOnline.
Thursday - Orange Bowl
Notre Dame (-2.5, T-45.5) vs. Penn State
The Fighting Irish are on a 12-game winning streak and have been making plays by creating turnovers. Notre Dame boasts a +18 turnover ratio, including three turnovers in the playoffs, two of which came against the Bulldogs. The run game has been a major factor in their success, averaging 217 yards per game (YPG) this season. In the playoffs, they posted 154 and 193 yards in two games. QB Riley Leonard and running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price are averaging 6.0 yards per carry. On the other side, Penn State has relied on the run game, rushing the ball at least 40 times in both CFP games and averaging 5.0 YPC. Notre Dame did allow over 200 yards rushing to Army and Navy, something the Nittany Lions will look to exploit. Another challenge for the Irish will be All-American tight end Tyler Warren, who has 10 catches, 96 yards, and two touchdowns in the playoffs. Still, Notre Dame is playing its best football right now and is 4-0-1 ATS when favored by 7 points or fewer. Both teams will likely focus on establishing the run, which could lead to long, clock-moving drives. This matchup could come down to the final possession in a low-scoring affair, with the Fighting Irish coming out on top.
THE PICK: Notre Dame 20, Penn State 17
Friday - Cotton Bowl
Ohio State (-5.5, T-53) vs. No. 5 Texas
Ohio State is known for fast starts, outscoring opponents 35-0 in the first quarter of the playoffs. Jeremiah Smith has been a standout, with 290 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Will Howard has been outstanding with the deep ball, going 4-for-4 on passes over 20 yards against the Ducks. The Buckeyes run an aggressive attack with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins behind a strong offensive line. However, they face a Texas team with an active front seven that excels at pushing forward. Texas is No. 4 in scoring defense, allowing just 14.5 points per game, and will look to create turnovers. Offensively, Quinn Ewers has a 60.9% completion rate, with 275 yards per game, six touchdowns, and five interceptions in his last four games. Tight end Gunnar Helm could play a significant role in the game plan. Texas has struggled as an underdog under Steve Sarkisian, with a 1-5 straight-up (S/U) record and a 2-4 ATS record since he took over in 2021. The Longhorns will be competitive, but Ohio State will move on to the national championship game.
THE PICK: Ohio State 30, Texas 23