The Boston Celtics, known for their slow-paced gameplay, have effectively grounded the Dallas Mavericks' offense in the NBA Finals.
Series Overview
The Boston Celtics are on the brink of securing their 18th championship banner, leading the NBA Finals 3-0 against the struggling Dallas Mavericks. The key question for Celtics vs. Mavs predictions is whether the series will end tonight with a sweep.
While this is crucial, our primary focus for tonight's picks is on the total score before the tip-off on June 14.
Top Betting Picks for Game 4
Best Bet: Under 211.5 (-110 at BetOnline)
Opening Odds
| Boston | Dallas | Over/Under | |
| Spread | -1 | +1 | |
| Moneyline | -106 | -104 | |
| Over/Under | Over 212 | Under 212 |
Spread and Over/Under Analysis
This spread is narrow, with either team favored by a point, highlighting the significance of line shopping. Sportsbooks have reported heavy initial action backing the Mavs, with 67% of the handle betting on Dallas against the spread, despite only 43% of tickets supporting them as of Thursday morning. These bettors have gone 0-2-1 in these Finals.
Game 3 ended with a total score of 205, prompting the opening number for Game 4 to be set at 211.5, barely moving since late Wednesday night.
Analysis: Pacing and Offensive Ratings
Playoff Pacing
Pacing typically declines in the playoffs due to heightened stakes, tighter gameplay, and the fatigue of deep playoff runs. Both teams have seen a dip in their offensive ratings and a significant slowdown in pace.
Regular Season to Playoffs Transition
Dallas Mavericks:
- Regular Season Pace: No. 7 at 100.6 possessions per game
- Playoff Pace: 93.62 possessions per game
- Regular Season Offensive Rating: 115.9
- Playoff Offensive Rating: 115.2
Boston Celtics:
- Regular Season Pace: No. 24 at 96.13 possessions per game
- Playoff Pace: 92.45 possessions per game
- Regular Season Offensive Rating: 125.4
- Playoff Offensive Rating: 119.6
Impact on Total Points
These slower paces and intense playoff defenses have made points scarcer. The Mavericks have yet to score 100 points in any game this series, with final scores averaging 201.3 points. Even with the Game 4 total lowered to 211.5 from previous games, it still seems too high given the current pace and defensive intensity.
Key Factors
Boston's Control Over Pace
Boston has maintained a slow pace throughout the season, a strategy that has benefited them greatly. As long as the Celtics control the game tempo, they are likely to control the game's outcome as well.
Jayson Tatum’s Role
Jayson Tatum's overall patience has been crucial. Despite averaging just 21.7 points on 21.3 shots per game in this series, his playmaking and unselfish play have been vital. His assists have been consistent, with at least five assists in all three games. Tatum's role players must capitalize on the opportunities he creates for them.
Final Thoughts
Betting Tip: Always shop among sportsbooks to find the best value, especially for same-game parlays. For example, an identical parlay might pay only +465 at BetOnline, representing a 25.6% drop in value.
The Mavericks have struggled throughout the series, even with close scores in Games 2 and 3. If Boston continues to dictate the pace, they should also dictate the result, potentially wrapping up the series tonight.