Yariel Rodriguez is starting to find his groove on the big stage, and our MLB picks expect his play to keep the Blue Jays in front through five innings this afternoon.
Game Details
- Teams: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: July 29
- Event: Doubleheader, Game 1
The trade deadline is just hours away, and while the Toronto Blue Jays have already shipped out a handful of players, more could be out the door. However, they still need to focus on their four-game set against the Baltimore Orioles, starting with a doubleheader on July 29.
Pitching Matchup
Yariel Rodriguez, a 27-year-old right-hander, signed out of Cuba this offseason. After a rocky start marred by injuries, Rodriguez seems to be settling in as a Big League pitcher.
In his four starts this month, he boasts a 2.01 ERA and has limited opponents to a .123 batting average, racking up 25 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings. He will look to continue his strong performance against an Orioles lineup currently in a slump.
Zach Eflin, recently traded from the Rays to the Orioles, will be making his second consecutive start against the Blue Jays. Eflin has had a mixed season, with a .246 opponent xBA average ranking in the 45th percentile.
July has not been kind to him, with a 4.76 ERA and a .270 opponent batting average. In his last start against the Jays, he allowed two runs on six hits in 5 2/3 innings.
Performance
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have begun their selloff, with Yimi Garcia, Nate Pearson, and Danny Jansen all finding new homes over the weekend. Despite potential further trades, Yariel Rodriguez is expected to stay put and start tonight.
The Jays' offense has had success against Eflin, tagging him for 12 earned runs on 21 hits in 17 1/3 innings over three starts this season. Key batters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer have been particularly effective against him.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles, while leading the American League East, have seen their offense struggle in July. They rank 22nd in batting average, 23rd in OPS, and 17th in wRC+. This downturn could provide an opportunity for Rodriguez to dominate.
Prediction
Given the struggles of the Orioles' lineup and the recent success of Rodriguez, there is value in betting on the Blue Jays to lead after the first five innings.
The Toronto bullpen remains unreliable, especially with key arms being traded, making a full-game moneyline bet less appealing.
Pick: Blue Jays to lead after the first five innings
Player Prop Bet
Yariel Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
Rodriguez has been impressive in his recent starts, lowering his xERA to 3.61 and his opponent xBA to .224. His strikeout rate has climbed to 30.4% over his last four starts, where he has struck out at least six batters in each game.
With the Orioles having the 11th highest K-rate against right-handed pitchers, Rodriguez's strikeout prop of 4.5 offers solid value at plus money.
Star Player Prop: Yariel Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Summary of Odds
- Toronto Blue Jays to lead after the first five innings: Value bet
- Yariel Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts: +115
Rodriguez's current form and the Orioles' offensive struggles suggest a strong start for the Blue Jays in Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Betting on Rodriguez to surpass 4.5 strikeouts provides a solid opportunity given his recent performance and Baltimore's tendencies against right-handed pitchers.