It’s the best rivalry in the AFC between two teams with the best records in the NFL since 2017. Kansas City has won three Super Bowls, while Buffalo is still trying to reach the big game. They meet Sunday in a matchup that could determine the No. 1 seed in the conference. Here are the odds:
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
The Chiefs may be the worst 9-0 team of all time. Sure, they’ve won nine straight to open the season, but they've been lucky—last week, they blocked a last-second field goal to secure a win against Denver. There are concerns on offense as Kansas City has only scored 30 points or more once, and Patrick Mahomes has thrown 12 touchdowns with 9 interceptions. The defense has been top-notch, allowing just 17.9 points per game. Kareem Hunt has filled in well, posting back-to-back games with 100 total yards. After a slow start, Travis Kelce has averaged 72 yards over the last six weeks.
Buffalo Bills (8-2)
The Bills’ defense has been getting it done, ranking ninth in the league, allowing just 19.3 points per game. They’ll face a Chiefs offense that has some serious weapons, including Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who has come on of late after a slow start. Kelce has averaged 85 yards and 10 receptions over the last three weeks. Buffalo ranks 22nd in the league against the pass, so this will be a key matchup to watch. The run game will also be crucial, especially since the Bills have ruled out rookie receiver Keon Coleman for this game, and Amari Cooper is listed as questionable.
Keys to the Game
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Josh Allen has 16 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions, and a QBR of 74 in seven career games against the Chiefs. Can Kansas City contain him and prevent another big game? Quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix have found success against the Chiefs, so there’s no reason Allen can’t as well.
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes thrives as the underdog. Over his career, he’s 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS when the Chiefs are the favorites. Kansas City will be featured on many teaser tickets, and rightfully so, as Mahomes is a perfect 14-0 ATS against a six-point teaser as an underdog in his career.
Game Prediction: Buffalo Bills -2.5
The Bills have won five straight games and are +61 in scoring margin during that stretch. They need this game more than the Chiefs, who are 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games. The Bills should pick up the win, but expect a one-score game.
Game Betting Odds
- Chiefs +2.5
- Bills -2.5
- Total: 45.5
Recent Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 5-4 ATS this season.
- Buffalo is 6-4 ATS through 10 games.
Head-to-Head Meetings
- Buffalo leads the all-time series 29-25-1 and has won the last two regular-season meetings in close games.
- However, the Chiefs have won three straight playoff games, including one in January.
- The last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.