Kyle Pitts is looking to redeem himself after coming close to being a hero for the Atlanta Falcons last week. His missed touchdown opportunity and a controversial non-call for pass interference set him up for a potential breakout performance in Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints vs Falcons matchup presents Pitts with a promising situation due to injuries within the New Orleans defense.
Here’s a breakdown of the spread, total, and player prop odds at BetOnline for this NFC South clash on Sunday, September 29.
Analysis
Kyle Pitts’ history against the New Orleans Saints has been a mixed bag, but Week 4 could be his chance to shine. He's finding his rhythm with new quarterback Kirk Cousins, and the Saints defense is struggling with injuries, especially at the linebacker position.
Key coverage linebackers Nephi Sewell (out with a knee injury) and Demario Davis (questionable with a hamstring injury) could be missing, leaving the Saints vulnerable in the middle of the field — prime territory for Pitts to operate.
Pitts is coming off his biggest game of the season, grabbing two of five targets, one for a 50-yard gain, totaling 59 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs. Despite his reduced playing time in Week 3 (down to 69% of snaps compared to 74% in Week 2 and 96% in Week 1), this matchup looks promising. Notably, the Saints allowed 170 yards to Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert in Week 3 and now face linebacker shortages.
The Saints' aggressive pass rush will likely force Cousins to use Pitts as his short-yardage safety option. Cousins’ mobility is limited, making Pitts a crucial target in short and intermediate routes when pressure comes.
Pitts’ receiving yard total is currently set at 33.5 yards, which is down from earlier games. However, some betting forecasts project at least 39 yards for him, with some models even predicting up to 50 yards.
Key Points:
- Pitts is projected for up to 50 yards, with the Saints' defense weakened in the middle of the field.
- Bijan Robinson is expected to score again after finding the end zone last week.
- The Saints are dealing with mounting injuries, giving the Falcons a significant advantage.
Saints vs Falcons Odds at BetOnline.ag
- Spread: New Orleans +2 (+104) | Atlanta -2 (-116)
- Moneyline: New Orleans +115 | Atlanta -135
- Over/Under: Over 42 (-108) | Under 42 (-112)
Saints vs Falcons Spread and Over/Under Analysis
- This matchup opened with Atlanta as a 1.5-point home favorite, and the spread has since increased to Falcons -2.5, reflecting the Saints' injury challenges.
- The Over/Under started at 45.5 but has since been adjusted to as low as 42 points due to concerns about scoring potential, given the Saints' offensive injuries.
- In addition to linebacker injuries, the Saints may be without running back Alvin Kamara, though he returned to practice on Thursday. Quarterback Derek Carr is also managing a groin injury.
Betting Trend to Know
The Falcons have played under the total in both home games this season, with a 9-17 Over/Under record at home since 2021 (65% Unders).
Saints vs Falcons Game Info
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- Date: Sunday, 9-29, 2024
- Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
- TV: FOX
Latest Injuries
Atlanta Falcons:
- Jake Matthews (T): Injured - Personal
- Matthew Judon (OLB): Injured - Hamstring
- Kaleb McGary (T): Injured - Knee
New Orleans Saints:
- Alvin Kamara (RB): Injured - Hip
- Derek Carr (QB): Injured - Left Groin
- Taysom Hill (TE): Injured - Chest
With the Saints’ defense likely weakened and Kyle Pitts finding his form, this game sets up as a prime opportunity for the Falcons to exploit New Orleans' vulnerabilities and secure a crucial divisional win.