Tonight’s American League showdown between the Seattle Mariners and the Detroit Tigers features a clash of aces, but the total for the game might be too low, considering the circumstances.
Let’s examine this matchup:
Game Details
- Teams: Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
- Date: Tuesday, August 13, 2024
- Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
- First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- TV: RSNW, Bally Sports Detroit
- Starting Pitchers: George Kirby (Seattle) vs. Tarik Skubal (Detroit)
Mariners vs. Tigers Prediction
Best Bet: Over 7 (+100)
When two elite pitchers like George Kirby and Tarik Skubal face off, it’s common for oddsmakers to set very low totals. However, tonight’s total seems overly conservative, and there’s good reason to expect more runs than the line suggests.
Tarik Skubal has been outstanding this season, boasting a 13-4 record with a league-leading 2.57 ERA. He’s a strong contender for the American League Cy Young Award, leading the AL in strikeouts with a 2.68 FIP and a 0.935 WHIP.
However, he’s not entirely unhittable; over his last five starts, he’s allowed four home runs and has a more human 3.24 ERA.
On the other side, George Kirby has emerged as one of the best control pitchers in the majors, walking just one batter per nine innings this season. However, his recent form has been shaky, allowing five runs on 14 hits over just 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts.
These pitchers faced each other just six days ago, with Detroit winning 6-2. That game provides a reasonable expectation for tonight's rematch, as both teams are capable of pushing the total over seven runs, even with their aces on the mound.
Mariners vs. Tigers Opening Odds at BetOnline
- Run Line: Seattle -1.5 (+170) | Detroit +1.5 (-205)
- Moneyline: Seattle -110 | Detroit -110
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-125) | Under 7 (+105)
Mariners vs. Tigers Spread and Over/Under Analysis
Both teams have struggled on the moneyline this season. The Mariners have lost three units for bettors, while the Tigers are down nearly seven units. When Skubal starts, Detroit has a 15-8 record, compared to Seattle’s 10-14 record when Kirby takes the mound.
The Tigers have been trending towards the Over, hitting the game total Over in 57 of their last 102 games (+10.95 Units / 10% ROI). The Mariners have also been profitable on the Over, especially on the road, hitting the Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+8.15 Units / 26% ROI).
Mariners vs. Tigers Trends
The Tigers have seen totals of eight runs or more in each of Skubal’s last four starts. This trend, combined with the low total set for tonight, makes the Over an attractive bet.
Mariners vs. Tigers Game Info
- Location: Comerica Park, Detroit, MI
- Date: Tuesday, August 13, 2024
- First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
- TV: RSNW, Bally Sports Detroit
Starting Pitchers
- George Kirby (Seattle): 8-8, 3.13 ERA
- Tarik Skubal (Detroit): 13-4, 2.57 ERA
Latest Injuries
Detroit Tigers
- Wenceel Pérez (CF): Late August - Abdominal
- Riley Greene (CF): Out indefinitely - Hamstring
- Reese Olson (RP): Out indefinitely - Shoulder
Seattle Mariners
- Gregory Santos (SP): Out indefinitely - Bicep
- J.P. Crawford (SS): Out indefinitely - Finger
- Jonny Farmelo (CF): Out for season - Knee
Despite featuring two top-tier pitchers, tonight’s game between the Mariners and Tigers has enough variables to suggest that the Over 7 is a sensible bet.
Skubal and Kirby are capable of keeping the game tight, but both have shown signs of vulnerability recently, making a higher-scoring game a distinct possibility. Betting on the Over at +100 presents good value for this matchup.