The Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight in the opening game of their National League series at American Family Field. The Dodgers come in as slight favorites, but recent performances suggest this game could swing in the Brewers' favor.
Game Information
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
- Date: Monday, 8-12-2024
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- TV: SportsNet Los Angeles, Bally Sports Wisconsin
- Dodgers Starting Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw (0-2, 4.38 ERA)
- Brewers Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta (7-6, 4.02 ERA)
Prediction and Analysis
Clayton Kershaw's Struggles
Clayton Kershaw is making his fourth start of the season, and it's been a rough return for the veteran left-hander. He holds a 0-2 record with a 4.38 ERA and a concerning 1.62 WHIP. Kershaw's underlying metrics don't paint a better picture, as he ranks in the bottom half of the league in key categories like expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, and strikeout rate.
Given these struggles, Kershaw could be in for another tough outing against a Brewers lineup that has historically performed well against him, boasting a .500 slugging percentage across 43 combined career plate appearances.
Freddy Peralta's Edge
On the mound for the Brewers is Freddy Peralta, who has had an up-and-down season but still outperforms Kershaw in several key areas. Peralta holds the advantage in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate. He also has a solid track record against the Dodgers, with a 2-1 record and a 2.63 ERA over five career starts.
Peralta’s ability to generate strikeouts, ranking in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and 90th percentile in strikeout rate, could pose significant challenges for a Dodgers lineup that has struggled against him in the past.
Bullpen and Offense Comparison
Milwaukee also holds the edge in the bullpen, with their relief staff outperforming the Dodgers in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Offensively, both teams are tied for fourth in the league in runs scored per game, making this a more balanced matchup than it might appear at first glance. However, the current Dodgers lineup has struggled against Peralta, hitting just .195 with a .329 slugging percentage and a .283 wOBA through 94 combined plate appearances.
Betting Trends and Odds at BetOnline
- Run Line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+158) | Milwaukee +1.5 (-192)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -110 | Milwaukee -110
- Over/Under: 8
This game opened as a pick'em, but the market has slightly tilted toward the Dodgers. Despite this, the Brewers have won five of their last six games, suggesting they're in better form heading into this matchup.
Final Thoughts
With Clayton Kershaw still trying to find his form and Freddy Peralta holding an edge in both recent performance and historical success against the Dodgers, the Brewers have a solid chance to take the first game of this series.
Milwaukee’s bullpen advantage and the Dodgers' recent struggles at the plate against Peralta further tilt the scales in the Brewers' favor. Expect a competitive game, but one that could very well see the Brewers come out on top.