Water Polo kicks off at the 2024 Olympics in late July and while the women’s draw is fairly
one-sided with the Americans listed as heavy favorites, the men’s side is very wide open. Three
nations listed at between +200 and +300. But can there be upsets on either side? We’ll take a
look at potential value plays in the pool.
Men’s Tournament
Hungary +200
They’ve been a powerhouse winning nine gold medals at the Olympics including three straight
in 2000, 2004, and 2008. But since, just a bronze medal in 2020. They won the Worlds in
2023, but finished a disappointing fourth at the 2024 Euros. They are capable of regaining their
Olympic gold medal status once again.
Spain +200
Spain has been dominant of late, winning gold at the 2022 World Cup followed by bronze at the
2023 and 204 Worlds. Spain also won gold at the 2024 European Championship. But haven’t
won gold at the Olympics since 1996. Since then, they’ve had two fourth place Olmypic finishes
including 2020.
Italy +300
Italy hasn’t won gold since 1992. But they have been playing well in the lead up to Paris.
Silver at the 2024 World Championships and bronze at the 2024 European Championship. Italy
beat Hungary and Spain in those events.
Serbia +1400
Serbia is a dark horse play here. They are the two-time defending Olympic gold medalists, and
won bronze at the previous two Summer Games. They had many of those players move on, but
still dangerous with the pedigree, and the longer odds made it a value play.
Men's Water Polo Gold Medal Odds
Hungary +200
Spain +200
Italy +300
Croatia +600
Greece +700
Serbia +1400
USA +4000
Montenegro +6600
France +6600
Women’s Tournament
USA -260
They are the 3-time Olympic champions and have never missed a podium finish since water
polo became a women’s Olympic event. The younger generation have stepped up in a big way
recently. The Americans have won five of the last six World Championship and should make
the gold medal game if all goes according to plan.
Spain +600
Spain appears to be the Americans biggest challenge. They have lost to the States in two of
the last three Olympic gold medal matches, and three of the last four World Championship
finals. It could come down to these nations, with the Spaniards looking to finally get over the
hump.
Women's Water Polo Gold Medal Odds
USA -260
Netherlands +500
Spain +600
Hungary +1000
Australia +1600
Greece +1600
Italy +1600
Canada +15000
France +20000